Our Electric Vehicle Forecast for 2030: COVID-19 Impacts

By May 12, 2020 Blog
The electric vehicle market is forecast to rise by 2030

The electric vehicle market is forecast to rise by 2030

The coronavirus pandemic has changed everything we know about our economic outlook in the 2020s. For business owners and managers, employers, landlords and property managers, and fleet managers who are thinking about installing EV charging stations on their parking lots, this has raised questions about where the EV market as a whole is going.

As a result, we have revised our electric vehicle forecast for 2030. Electric vehicles by 2030 are still very likely to constitute a much bigger share of the vehicle market than they do today, which means the demand for EV charging infrastructure will continue to grow, even if there is a short-term reduction in demand.

Let’s get into the details and take a closer look.

How Will Coronavirus Affect the 2030 Electric Vehicle Forecast?

Anyone who is offering a decisive economic prediction right now is going out on a limb. Some people are saying that everything will snap back to normal in a few months. Others predict that the economy as we knew it is gone forever.

But the plain and simple truth is that we don’t have any past examples to compare our current situation against. This economic shock is unprecedented since the Great Depression and World War II, and the underlying problem we’re facing today is very different from those particular disasters. The lack of historical precedents makes it difficult to accurately predict how everything will shake out. We are in uncharted waters!

But that doesn’t mean we can’t make a well-informed electric vehicle forecast for 2030. That’s because there are still many pieces of critical information that are likely to remain true no matter what particular coronavirus scenario plays out.

The Bad News: High Unemployment and Dwindling Purchasing Power

The bad news is easy to spot: In the short-term, we think the demand for EVs is going to drop like a stone.

Unemployment claims are through the roof. Businesses are shut down. Whole sectors of the economy are virtually inoperative. This means less money for consumers to buy EVs, and less money for businesses to upgrade their vehicle fleets to electric.

This doesn’t necessarily say much about the electric vehicle forecast for 2030 itself, but it does say that the first few years of the 2020s are likely to be bad for the entire automobile industry.

The Good News: Strong Market Fundamentals and High Demand for Charging Stations

The important thing to keep in mind is that this is not a problem with the EV market itself. The demand for traditional vehicles is falling like a rock, too. When you look at the EV market, the fundamentals are still strong. Our original electric vehicle forecast for 2030 was very bullish because of these fundamentals, and those strengths mean that the EV market is still a force to be reckoned with.

It’s also important to realize that, from the standpoint of considering whether or not to install EV charging stations on your parking lots, the existing EVs already out there on the road aren’t going anywhere, and the existing charging infrastructure to accommodate them remains inadequate. Demand for new EV charging facilities is likely to return to high levels once state economies begin to reopen.

EV drivers are more affluent and more educated on average, and are therefore less likely to be wiped out financially by the pandemic. Businesses, employers, and apartments and condos that accommodate EV drivers are likely to enjoy an incremental advantage over their competitors who don’t offer convenient EV charging.

Let’s Take a Closer Look at the Market Fundamentals

To build a solid foundation for our electric vehicle forecast for 2030, let’s take a look at the specific market fundamentals that will shape the direction of the industry.

  • Demand will be depressed in the short term, and a full recovery may be several years in the making.
  • People are still going to need to purchase automobiles and will continue to be interested in EVs for their net-zero emissions and modern reputation.
  • State and local governments will continue to encourage the adoption of electric vehicles, to reduce both conventional pollution and greenhouse gas emissions. Electric vehicles, by 2030, will be the norm for many, if not most, public and private vehicle fleets and transit fleets.
  • The federal government will likely reinforce these efforts at times, depending on the priorities of key policymakers.
  • California, in particular, will remain the national leader in electric vehicle adoption and incentives and will generate and maintain momentum that will influence the rest of the country.
  • Electric vehicles by 2030 are going to offer a considerably higher value proposition than their counterparts today. EV costs are continuing to gradually come down, and EV credits, incentives, and rebates will likely be extended in many jurisdictions in order to keep EVs competitive to the consumer.
  • The arrival of all-electric trucks, vans, ATVs and UTVs, and other off-road vehicles will create new pathways for EVs to gain market share.
  • Generational change points heavily in favor of continued growth in demand for EVs. Our electric vehicle forecast for 2030 accounts for a growth in younger demographics as the biggest spenders in our market.
  • The “cool factor” and impressive performance and handling of certain brands of EVs, especially Tesla, will continue to attract affluent consumers for years to come. These are people who wouldn’t necessarily have bought electric otherwise, and basically amount to a distinct consumer segment within the broader EV market, which will help improve the performance of the overall market.

When people do eventually begin buying cars again, we think they’re more likely than ever to buy electric.

Our Revised Electric Vehicle Forecast For 2030

Taking all of these factors into consideration, when preparing an electric vehicle forecast for 2030, the best way to think about the COVID-19 pandemic is to think in terms of delay. This economic disaster will very likely delay the evolution and growth of the electric vehicle market, along with most of the rest of the economy.

Sales and growth benchmarks that we might have anticipated for 2022, as the first electric pickup trucks come onto the market, might be delayed by a year, or several years, due to decreased demand and financial distress among manufacturers and their suppliers.

Nevertheless, as the 2020s progress, it’s likely that we will eventually enter into a full-scale economic recovery. Whether that takes one year, or 10 years, or something in between, is uncertain. But it seems very likely to us that electric vehicles by 2030 are likely to constitute a much larger share of new vehicle sales than what we see today.

Essentially, then, we’re still bullish on our electric vehicle forecast for 2030. In turn, that has positive ramifications for the desirability of deploying new EV charging infrastructure.

Let EV Connect Help You Manage Your EV Charging Stations

The electric vehicle forecast for 2030 is a bright one. With massive long-term market growth expected, and the many financial incentives available from governments and utilities, there has never been a better time to install EV charging equipment on your lots and/or convert your vehicle fleets to electric.

At EV Connect, our electric vehicle charging network solutions can help you manage your EV charging units effectively, efficiently, and hassle-free. For those who want the ultimate in customization, and a fully-managed network platform, our EV Cloud Platform service provides you with even more options.

Electric vehicles by 2030 are going to expect professional, well-managed charging solutions. Contact us today to learn more about your ROI opportunities and your options for running your charging stations optimally.

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